The hottest Tianqi futures short selling pressure,

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Tianqi Futures: short selling pressure, Shanghai and Japan fell together

Tianjiao market showed a sharp downward trend this week. Under the condition that the fundamentals tend to be stable, the market has been continuously sold by the funds with two supporting rollers of short positions; Japanese rubber rebounded slightly to above 290 yen at the beginning of this week, but was dragged down by the sharp decline of Shanghai rubber, and the fund reduced its positions again and left the market. Although the yen weakened and crude oil hit a new high, the detection knowledge of Tianjiao impact tester failed to be boosted, and the market digested negative factors in advance before the seasonal rubber cutting season came; Under the pressure of short selling, the bulls had little defensive power. The opening price of the main contract 0807 was 22585 at the beginning of the week, with a maximum of 22585 and a minimum of 21035. It closed at 21180 at the weekend, down 1405 points from the beginning of the week. TOCOM rubber index fell back at a high level, with a decline of about 10 yen. The rebound trend in the previous two weeks was destroyed, and the market has further decline, which is generally not easy to encounter difficulties


1. Preliminary data released by the General Administration of Customs on Friday showed that China imported 180000 tons of natural rubber in March, an increase of 46% over the same period last year. The data also showed that China's monthly natural rubber imports were 490000 tons, an increase of 30.8% year-on-year

2. In 2007, Japan imported about 840000 tons of natural rubber, which was 4.3% lower than that in 2006, and the import amount decreased by 1.2%. In 2007, the main importing countries and imports of natural rubber in Japan were 420000 tons in Thailand; Indonesia 395968 tons, an increase of 8.1% year on year; Vietnam imports 11.337 million tons; Malaysia 67.17 million tons

3. Indonesian rubber exports to China increased by 63.7% year-on-year, reaching 56190 tons. Suharto, chairman of the Indonesian Rubber Enterprises Association, said that Indonesia has a large area of rubber plantations south of the equator, and the rubber production period is long. When the output of neighboring Malaysia and Thailand decreases due to the rainy season, Indonesia can still export rubber to China. According to the statistics of the Central Bureau of statistics of Indonesia, the total export value of rubber and derivatives in the first two months of this year was US $1.21 billion, an increase of 41.6% over the same period last year

4. Dow Europe announced that the price of all its synthetic rubber products would rise by 150 euros per ton from April 1. Dow Chemical provides customers with a variety of styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) and polybutadiene rubber (BR) products, including cold polymerized lotion of styrene butadiene rubber (Buna E-SBR), high CIS polybutadiene rubber and low CIS polybutadiene rubber

5. Weekly report on rubber inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange on April 11: Rubber inventory was 65120 tons, 6255 tons less than last week; Futures inventory was 46295 tons, 4950 tons less than last week

since the beginning of the week, the Tianjiao market has fallen by more than 1500 points. Under the condition of the gradual weakening of seasonal positive factors, the popularity of bulls has been lax, and they have no intention to take over the offer, showing a trend of continuous retreat, while bears are chasing after the victory. Short sellers led by Galaxy futures, Shanghai Tonglian and Zhejiang Galaxy funds continue to sell, and the market is almost controlled by short sellers; Japanese glue also showed no obvious performance, and most funds waited and saw, resulting in the market following the weakness of Shanghai glue, and the market weakness became more obvious after the 280 yen fell below; The overall commodity market is in a strong external and weak internal state. Although there is a factor of RMB appreciation, the degree of impact is limited. People's panic about high-priced commodities is intensifying, which is more obvious in Shanghai rubber. Shanghai Rubber fell back from the 22500 front line to the specification of electronic tensile testing machine, which is expressed by the combination of the maximum load that the frame can bear and the maximum load of the bearing unit. It took less than a week around 21000, During this period, there was almost no obvious resistance from bulls. Technically, it has broken and is in an oversold state. Next week, we will pay attention to the 280 yen support of Japanese rubber and whether Shanghai rubber can stop falling near 21000

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